Friday morning, on my way to work, I read something in the newspaper which struck me as odd.
Some Al-Qaeda operative in Britain announced that Ireland was now a target of Al-Qaeda.
Now, I never thought that anybody was excused from being a target of Al-Qaeda (in fact recent events make me believe that being a Muslim makes one more rather than less of a target); but the odd part of the announcement was their explanation.
They said that Irish support for US forces made Ireland an enemy of [insert whatever Al-Qaeda think they are fighting for this week].
Apparently, so the announcement said, American aircraft are based in Ireland and attack Iraqi targets from here.
This made me think. There is, so I understand, an American presence in Shannon. But what is its relation with Iraq? Why wasn't it enough for Americans to be here, why did it have to be related to Iraq?
That's when it occured to me.
I always assumed that whatever Al-Qaeda say is a lie, carefully made up by a propaganda team and then fed to westerners and Muslims, in an attempt to frighten westerners and recruit Muslims. But Al-Qaeda attacks on Muslims make more and more Muslims outright enemies of Al-Qaeda. Why would an organisation like Al-Qaeda be intelligent and rational in their propaganda (serving their purposes, of course), but at the same time destroy its impact by its actions?
Furthermore, how does Al-Qaeda think they can win, if not by winning over Muslims and actually hurting westerners (and hurting them badly)?
Al-Qaeda's most famous attack did hurt Al-Qaeda's enemy. But since then Al-Qaeda has been losing. Some in the west have done the opposite of what Al-Qaeda wanted them to do. And that has hurt Al-Qaeda badly. The majority of Iraqis, for example, are Kurds and Shi'ites, who are both, due to their not being Sunni Arabs, no possible clientele for Al-Qaeda. By liberating these two groups from Sunni rule they are now lost for Al-Qaeda. Not many free Kurds and Shi'ites will join or support a Sunni extremist and Arab nationalist group like Al-Qaeda. And I thought that was why Al-Qaeda happily bomb Shi'ite mosques (because Shi'ites are the enemy).
So let's for a moment assume that Al-Qaeda do not lie, but really believe what they say is true. Bear with me.
And let's assume that Al-Qaeda actually know how they could win the war.
There are three possible ways Al-Qaeda can win this war:
1. The enemy gives up.
This is actually the most likely win for Al-Qaeda. If enough people in the west decide that America and its allies cannot take the losses that come with fighting the war, America might stop fighting the war. The middle east recovers, the beginning democracies falter, and Al-Qaeda can regroup among returning Sunni Arab dictatorships.
2. G-d interferes.
I first read in Steven Den Beste's blog about Al-Qaeda's possible belief in this outcome. If Muslims prove that they are worthy, G-d will interfere and smite America. For a long time I thought that was Al-Qaeda's belief. But the last four years have shown that G-d tends to be on the side of those with the most aircraft carriers. And all the attacks from the sky with seemingly supernatural power have been by American and British war planes, not so much G-d himself. And even if Al-Qaeda's leaders themselves still believe that G-d might help them, I am not sure how many of their possible followers are as convinced of such help any more.
3. The terrorists actually and plainly win.
We know this is unlikely, for all purposes actually impossible. But Al-Qaeda might not know. And while their leaders (who believe in 2.) might understand that, their followers might not understand. Perhaps Al-Qaeda's followers, like the left in the west, believe that there is still a clear front between the west and the forces of Allah and that Iraq is not lost for Sunni Arabs and that Israel could fall to a few terrorists any day now.
I think it is this third possibily which gives us an answer.
What if Al-Qaeda do not lie in their announcements?
What if Al-Qaeda really do not know that American forces are in Iraq, that the Iraqi army is on their side, and that the Shi'ite majority won't give power back to the Sunnis? What if the Al-Qaeda announcement about Ireland and American attacks on Iraq really was about Ireland and American attacks?
What if Al-Qaeda believe that Iraq is on their side and is being attacked from American forces from the outside?
What if Al-Qaeda completely overestimate the power of Sunni Arabs in Iraq and their sympathies for Al-Qaeda's cause?
In that case it would make perfect sense for Al-Qaeda to believe that these American attacks on Iraqis would come, if obviously not from Iraq, from SOMEWHERE. Note that the same basic ideas about Iraq (Sunni Arabs are very strong and represent Iraq, Americans are still fighting against Iraq rather than with Iraq against Sunni terrorists) are also dominant among the left in the west! It is not inconceivable that Al-Qaeda and the left fall for the same fallacies.
If this is true and Al-Qaeda do or did believe that this is their position relative to Sunni Arabs, it all would make sense.
Al-Qaeda would have every reason to believe that they might win this war. And the left, who still fall for the story that Iraqis hate Americans and are being brutally opressed by them, are really really good allies for the cause.
In such a case Al-Qaeda could happily attack Palestinian hotels in Jordan just to hit one American, because they would assume that Sunni Arabs understand that Al-Qaeda are fighting for Allah and would support them no matter what.
In short, what I think is going on is that Al-Qaeda overestimate not their own strength but the level of support they enjoy among Sunni Arabs (they have none among Shi'ite Arabs), they overestimate the power of Sunni Arabs, in Iraq and Lebanon, and they underestimate Israel's strength. (They might want to read the Qur'an about this one. It tells that G-d is with His chosen people and that the Jews will return to their land after their long exile.)
And Al-Qaeda's announcements are not carefully crafted lies but merely their honest appraisal of the situation.
And when Al-Qaeda say that Ireland is one of their targets because of American attacks on Iraq from Ireland it actually means that Al-Qaeda have not yet realised that Iraq is already lost for them and that Americans are already in Iraq and won't go away.