Conservatives Win in German Federal Elections

Published on September 29, 2009 By Leauki In International

While the US become more left-wing, Europe is moving towards the right.

In the UK the Tories are expected to win next year and in Germany first female (and first East-German) prime minister Angela Merkel just won the elections, most notably due to not her own Christian Democrats' success but due to the success of the more economically right-wing Liberal Democrats.

Angela Merkel also won her own constituency decisevely. Many East-German constituencies fell to the Socialists. The Green party had some successes and remain an odd party. (They are a weird union of anti-communist civil rights activists from East-Germany, socialists with fascist sympathies from North-West-Germany and Berlin, and pro-democracy hawkish "realos" from South-West-Germany.)

Results (popular vote, seats)

Christian Democrats: 33.8%, 239/622 seats

Social Democrats: 23.0%, 146 seats

Liberal Democrats: 14.6%, 93

Socialists: 11.9%, 76

Greens: 10.7%, 68

Note voters are turning away from the two big parties in favour of the three smaller parties. The trend hasn't caught up with the Christian Democrats yet due to the enormous popularity of Merkel (who replaced realo-Green Joschka Fischer as Germany's most popular politicians some years ago).

Oddly enough the left wing of the Social Democrats used the opportunity of the election loss to claim that the reason so many people voted for the conservative Christian Democrats and the openly neo-liberal Liberal Democrats because the Social Democratic party is not left-wing enough. They propose that the Social Democrats should move to the left, a strategy which has so far only resulted in more and more voters voting for the real deal, the Socialists, instead, not that the grand mother of socialism, the Social Democratic Party of Germany, told them that communism is an OK proposition.

(Traditionally the Social Democrats were socialist but staunchly and violentely anti-communist and attracted voters from the same class as the communists would and voters of all classes of society who were afraid of communism.)

What can we expect from the new government?

Angela Merkel is the daughter of a Protestant minister and is known for her pro-Israeli views. She is also a doctor of physics.

Guido Westerwelle, the leader of the Liberal Democrats and next foreign minister is, to put it bluntly, known for being an openly gay lawyer who once appeared in the Big Brother television show as a guest star. (That appearance cost him my vote years ago.)

The new administration is expected to be more pro-business than the current grand coalition (Christian Democrats and Social Democrats), probably more traditional/Christian, and certainly more friendly towards America (even under Obama) and Israel. (Merkel also supported the American invasion of Iraq.)

Ties with Poland will probably improve as Merkel is less likely to question Polish politicians' sanity when they advocate a pro-American stance than the Social Democrats were.

I don't think Westerwelle has any opinions whatsoever on foreign policy. But his party was famous in the early 2000s for blatant anti-Semitism which Westerwelle failed to react to and which was most visibly criticised among the Green party.

It's an odd couple.

Expect lots of funny mishaps from the new foreign minister. But also expect lots of foreign policy branded by Merkel directly. (Merkel herself speaks English and Russian fluently.) The Social Democrats' Frank Steinmeier was a decent foreign minister. Merkel didn't let him do much but he was (and remains) completely competent in everything he does. It's his party, especially the left wing, that brought him down, not his own persona.

Enjoy!

Comments

Leauki

on Sep 29, 2009

Perhaps the German left needs an Obama.

But Germany doesn't have the majority-minority thing going that could give a minority polician such a momentum. In Germany, as boring as it sounds, it really does matter what politicians stand for and not what they look like.

Nitro Cruiser

on Sep 29, 2009

Perhaps the German left needs an Obama

Why...not enough "hope" and "change" there in Germany?

We'll gladly lease them Obama!

Leauki

on Sep 29, 2009

We'll gladly lease them Obama!

If the Germans find out about Obama's position on abortion, the "hope" and "change" will be over quickly.

In Germany abortion is illegal and it was a difficult compromise even to remove punishment from abortions done in the first trimester. Both major parties are against abortion. And we are talking all abortions, not just in the last few days or something like that.

Similarly Obama's brand of "Christianity", if it became widely known (and the German media would bring it up), would clash with Germany's established Protestantism and especially the Catholicism in the south. (In Bavaria the Christian Social Union usually get more than 50% of the popular vote and they are very closed to the established state churches.)

When it comes to some things Germany is deeply conservative and someone like Obama, when the things the media are now trying to ignore became known, would totally clash with that society.

Nitro Cruiser

on Sep 30, 2009

Leauki I see your point, but maybe since many Americans voted for him with little regard for his positions, Germany would too. Europe seems to love him and give him huge amounts of leeway, as long as he continues to bash the US.

Just heard that Sarkozy wanted to use a more forceful tone with the Iranians at the UN, but Obama didn't want dull his own shine. What a tool.

Leauki

on Sep 30, 2009

Europeans don't know anything about Obama's positions or what he actually does or proposes to do. If he ran in Europe, they would learn.

If you look at German politicians of the last 50 years, you will find that all of them were capable politicians and were not selected for their looks. In America, a common joke says, the winner of the Presidential elections is always the candidate with the most hair on his head.

In Germany there is also no way to elect a powerful official directly (or via an electoral college). Obama would have to find support among members of parliament who are trying to get their own agendas passed and the last thing they need is a charismatic prime minister/chancellor who has his own agenda and power base.

Europeans love everyone who is not a Republican. G-d knows why. But if Obama ran in Germany, his opponent wouldn't be a Republican and he wouldn't get this automatic approval.

Just heard that Sarkozy wanted to use a more forceful tone with the Iranians at the UN, but Obama didn't want dull his own shine. What a tool.

Case in point. Europeans want a tougher line against Iran.

You Americans don't know this, but most Europeans are sick of Muslim immigrants who are perceived to have brought the worst of their own culture to Europe. If you are looking for Islamophobia, you can find it in Europe. And more and more Europeans now support Israel not because of some love for the Jewish people or for what's right but simply because they perceive a common enemy and (rightly) believe that Israel stands between radical Islam and Europe. (What they don't want to hear is that Israel's most powerful enemies were secular dictatorships, not radical Muslims who only recently realised that they could gain support by attacking Israel.)

There is a somewhat infamous German blog site (which I won't link to here) which supports every far-right German politician unless he is too outspoken against Israel. I used to post in their comments as an Israel supporter but they have started to delete my comment on sight because I was too friendly towards Islam. (When they claimed Islam says X, I posted a quote or video of a Muslim scholar saying the exact opposite with reference to the Qur'an and history.) They also didn't like commenters pointing out that the PLO was not Islamic but secular and that not all Muslims are Arabs and that not all Arabs are radical Muslim terrorists.

Their politics become more influential and it will soon boil over and the far right will be back in Germany (and Europe). It is only a matter of time until the far right realise they don't need the anti-Islamic-fundamentalism crowd and can easily revert back to the anti-everything-foreign politics of their ancestors, and then both Islam and Israel will be on their bad guy list.

Currently, the anti-Israel far right have no chance in elections because they find it difficult to appear anti-Islam while condemning Israel for killing Islamic terrorists. And there simply is no huge base of voters who find it necessary to vote for a far right party just to hurt Israel.

But they wouldn't vote for an Obama-like candidate who tries to make peace with Muslims and appears to balance anti-Israel positions with common sense.

Nitro Cruiser

on Oct 01, 2009

most Europeans are sick of Muslim immigrants who are perceived to have brought the worst of their own culture to Europe.

Yet the doors are still wide open.

Leauki

on Oct 01, 2009

Yet the doors are still wide open.

I constantly find myself surprised how easy it must be for certain people to immigrate while students from India (who are easily assimilated) find it difficult to get work permits here.

That said, I think the reasons are three.

One is that we get many immigrants from certain countries, with "certain countries" being countries inhabited by people who hate us but want to live in our countries.

One other is that it is politically impossible in Germany (and to a lesser extend Europe) to be against certain immigrants without finding oneself among the racist far-right.

And the last is that the United Kingdom has lost control over its immigration system. Totally.

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