A Leauki's Writings

I have read western news reports about Egypt and noticed the lack of similar reports about Iran. The media have chosen sides again, as did our politicians who called on Mubarak to step down but won't openly point out the complete illegitimacy of the Iranian regime.

Here is some information on current events that everyone might find useful. My sources are this poll: washingtoninstitute.org…pollock-Egyptpoll.pdf and friends and acquaintances that could confirm the poll and tell me more.

Here it goes.

 

1. El-Baradei is celebrated by the western media as a leader of the Egyptian opposition. In reality he is an Islamist, almost unknown in Egypt and not very popular. [Former president] Mubarak and [former secret service head] Suleiman are more popular.

2. Only 15% of Egyptians approve of the Muslim Brotherhood, practically noone supports the Muslim Brotherhood leaders.

3. 37% support the peace treaty with Israel, 22% oppose it. Only 5% think the protests were about Mubarak being too pro-Israel.

3. Ironically the US fares less well among Egyptians. 36% vs 29% think that Egypt should have good vs bad relations with the US. And 8% think the protests were about Mubarak being too pro-US. Note that these were the same people asked, i.e. more Egyptians want good relations with Israel than with the US and Mubarak was seen as too pro-US by more people than he was seen as too pro-Israel. The US have lost trust in the ME in the last few years!

4. Only 18% of Egyptians support Hamas or Iran. (Most of the remaining support the PLO. But I guarantee that this will end once they find out what the PLO are actually doing.)

All of the above are based on the poll confirmed by talking to friends. I.e. I myself also found that of 10 Egyptians about 4 support peace with Israel while 2 are against it. I have also seen them complain more about the US than about Israel. I had Egyptian friends introduce me to Egyptians who as a pro-Israeli Jew I wouldn't have met otherwise, so there is little selection bias. Plus I accidentally started a fight between pro and anti-Mubarak Egyptians last week, before Mubarak stepped down. I explained to the anti-Mubarak guy that if he wants to shout at me he either has to speak English or very very slow Arabic.

5. There are major protests in Iran. The BBC are lying when they speak of a "few thousand".

6. Bibi Netanyahu is an idiot. (In case that wasn't yet obvious to everyone.)

7. Ariel Sharon remains well-respected among Egyptians, including among those who dislike Israel.

8. There is a crisis in Jordan between "West-Bankers" (native Palestinians) and "East-Bankers" (Bedouins who support the king). Palestinians are 92% of Jordan's population and the king has begun to strip them of citizenship. Queen Rania is loved by the west but hated by Palestinians (even though she is Palestinian). I hear stories about shopping sprees etc.. Perhaps surprisingly the Palestinians of Jordan are less conservative than the Bedouins and tend to vote Islamists out of parliament when given a chance. But the voting system in Jordan gives fewer seats to cities (where Palestinians live) and comparatively more seats to the countryside (where East-Bankers live). The West-Bank has Jordanian citizens but no Bedouins or country side.

9. There are Kurdish protests in Syria that nobody is reporting.

10. There are protests in Bahrain and Yemen which are not heavily reported.

11. Thousands of Tunisians are fleeing the country. This is perhaps widely reported now.

12. Egyptians are on massive strikes. Egypt needs economic aid and lots of it. This is the moment for the US to shine!

13. Both Hamas and the PLO have prohibited protests supporting the Egyptians against Mubarak. The PLO has also defended Mubarak together with Israel to the last minute. This hasn't cost Israel but it will cost the PLO.

14. There was a protest planned for Syria but nothing came of it (except for the Kurdish protests).

15. There are protests coming in Gaza.

 

There you go. What the media don't tell you.

 

 


Comments (Page 1)
on Feb 14, 2011

...

on Feb 14, 2011

Thanks for the info & insights, Leauki.  Good to see you back.

on Feb 14, 2011

Egyptians are on massive strikes. Egypt needs economic aid and lots of it. This is the moment for the US to shine!

I don't think we need to give Egypt anything right now Leuaki.  We're flat broke.

Besides, they'll appreciate Democracy more if they get it all on their own.  Then no one can say it was handed to them, or paid for by us or anyone else.

 

on Feb 15, 2011

I don't think we need to give Egypt anything right now Leuaki. We're flat broke.

Besides, they'll appreciate Democracy more if they get it all on their own. Then no one can say it was handed to them, or paid for by us or anyone else.

There is a lot the US can do that won't cost much money. Convert military aid into building hospitals. Send doctors to teach in Egyptian hospitals. Give preferential visas to Egyptian students. Give diplomatic support for any new democratic regime.

The Egyptians don't know what's ahead of them. They think that democracy brings quick wealth. It's going to get worse economically before it gets better. The Egyptians are not prepared for that.

Israel should also do a lot now, like invite Egyptians to visit the country, sponsor their trips. (I am doing that privately.) It's not expensive to sponsor a few hundred Egyptian students so they can visit Israel. It will cost a few hundred thousand dollars and pay off dramatically over the next few years.

on Feb 15, 2011

Besides, they'll appreciate Democracy more if they get it all on their own. Then no one can say it was handed to them, or paid for by us or anyone else.

Although I can agree with you in the end they will need help from someone as they may not be in a position to fight on their own. What we should not do is fight for them but simply help them in ways that don't make us the ones doing it for them. We may be short on dough but we should help where possible if in the end it will benefit us as well.

Besides, we didn't win our freedom by fighting alone and the WW's of the past were not won by fighting alone. We can't simply sit on the side lines and we can't expect a thank you every time we try to help. It's just the way the world works.

on Feb 15, 2011

Besides, we didn't win our freedom by fighting alone and the WW's of the past were not won by fighting alone. We can't simply sit on the side lines and we can't expect a thank you every time we try to help. It's just the way the world works.

Exactly.

But do note that if you stand alone as the helper, the people you helped will hate you for it.

on Feb 15, 2011

Besides, we didn't win our freedom by fighting alone

Granted the French had a dog in the fight secretly at first...but they also had a whole agenda of their own which came out later in direct declarations of war with England.  We were their excuse.  But you are right, they're beef with England helped us.

This is an important distinction imo and what makes the two situations vastly different.  Wanting independence and being prepared to fight, suffer and die, (which Americans were prepared to do without France) is completely different from wanting wealth and waiting/expecting the rest of the world to come to your aid.

The Egyptians don't know what's ahead of them. They think that democracy brings quick wealth. It's going to get worse economically before it gets better. The Egyptians are not prepared for that.

So do they want Democracy or quick wealth?  Because if they want quick wealth more, then no amount of help is gonna get them through the growing pains of Democracy when it doesn't materialize.

I think we should help, (not financially) with human rights type things like you mentioned (hospitals, food, etc).  But I believe it is very important they define and bargain for their own eventual form of government.  They have to live it.

 

 

on Feb 15, 2011

But do note that if you stand alone as the helper, the people you helped will hate you for it.

Why is that?

on Feb 15, 2011

Thanks Leauki for the article. Very interesting points to ponder.

Egyptians are on massive strikes. Egypt needs economic aid and lots of it. This is the moment for the US to shine!

I don't think we need to give Egypt anything right now Leuaki. We're flat broke.

Yes, that's true we are flat broke and worse.....Obama is still trying to spend more than the US is taking in and can afford. 

Egypt was already getting plenty of economic aid from us and according to Obama's 2012 budget Egypt along with Isreal will be getting even more.

I'm sorry I don't know how to do links so Here's the breaking story.

 

 

 

on Feb 15, 2011

Tova7

But do note that if you stand alone as the helper, the people you helped will hate you for it.
Why is that?

For the same reason friendship with married couples do not survive a divorce.  if you take sides, and they reconcile, both will hate you. If you do not take sides, then they will not consider you their friend. In other words, damned if you do and damned if you don't.

 

As for the article, while I have no arguments with any of the points, now is not the time for America to get involved, Period.  for 2 reasons - one that Tova gave (we are busted) and the second is for the reason I stated above.

It is a no win, and America is already looked at poorly.  Nothing we do is going to change that.  Not because of lack of trying (Obama will and fail miserably), but because the animosity is built on lies.  The truth is out there, but even useful idiots in this country still parrot the lies.  Which means they are not going to believe the truth in any event.

Now is the time for France and England to step forward.  It is their mess. And they need to take the lead as regardless of what truth is out there, they do not have the negatives and can possibly help much more than America can.

on Feb 15, 2011

Its tough to say with polling data if its correct or not, at least until you have many different polls taken with the same query. so I can't say with certainty that any of that polling data is correct. I can say with certainty that Egyptian hate Israelis. Why do I say this and how do I come to this conclusion? A few years ago the Egyptians had a ship capsizing and when the Israelis offered to rescue the Egyptians the response back was that they would: "rather drown than be rescued by Jews." If that's not extreme hate then I have no idea what is, regardless of whatever polls we dig up. And yes, I agree with the others, let the Egyptians slug it out and pay their own way for whatever future they want. I am filled with revulsion by these people for what they did to that CBS reporter. There is no place in America where a crowd of men would stand around and watch a woman raped and beaten in a public square. I don't care if we ever see these people again or what becomes of their future,. We need to explore and drill for our own energy and cut the cord.

on Feb 16, 2011

Its tough to say with polling data if its correct or not, at least until you have many different polls taken with the same query.

Don't you think I took that into account?

As I said, I only used the poll as a starting point for the article. My actual statements are my own. I did my own research. So the source for most of the above is simply me.

The point here is simply that you can believe me or not but I think I am much better informed than the media.

 

so I can't say with certainty that any of that polling data is correct. I can say with certainty that Egyptian hate Israelis.

Some do, some don't. Generally Arabs (including Egyptians) are more likely to let their hatred out. My informed guess is that the number of Egyptians that hate Jews or Israelis is about the same as the number of Europeans that hate Jews or Israelis. It's just that in Europe you can be fined for saying it out loud whereas in Egypt you can be beaten up (and under Mubarak tortured) for saying the opposite.

However, more and more pro-Israeli Egyptians are speaking up.

I am more worried about the new middle-class Egyptians who quite politically correct copy the anti-Israel propaganda and racism from the west, i.e. the idea that Palestinians by virtue of not being Africans "deserve" a standard of living much higher than the (compared with Egypt) high standard of living they currently have.

 

 

on Feb 16, 2011

The point here is simply that you can believe me or not but I think I am much better informed than the media.

Leuaki- I love your insights and logic.  I don't think you're infallible, but I always learn something from your posts.  Usually a lot of somethings.

I'm fairly ignorant of Egyptian politics.  So, in your opinion, what would be best case scenario for Egypt?  And how would that best case scenario impact the rest of the world?  (If you have time.)

Thanks!

on Feb 16, 2011



Leauki- I love your insights and logic.  I don't think you're infallible, but I always learn something from your posts.  Usually a lot of somethings.

Nah, infallible I am not; but better informed than the media I am.

 

I'm fairly ignorant of Egyptian politics.  So, in your opinion, what would be best case scenario for Egypt?  And how would that best case scenario impact the rest of the world?  (If you have time.)

The best case scenario is a liberal democracy. I think it is possible. A liberal democracy would be controlled by the upper classes. That would be good for the west. Egypt's upper classes studied in Europe and the US and are heavily westernised.

A likely scenario is a military dictatorship with ongoing protests.

The most likely scenario is a sham democracy under the direction of the military. That is not bad for the US and Israel but it is bad for the Egyptians.

Another likely scenario is that Egypt simply becomes a loyal Arab League democracy and as such a diplomatic danger to the world. But there will be no war.

I keep hearing from Egyptians that they will make Egypt into a liberal democracy but I think they are being too optimistic.

on Feb 16, 2011

The point here is simply that you can believe me or not but I think I am much better informed than the media.

My retarded mule is more informed than the Media!  You should set your bar higher than that!

The most likely scenario is a sham democracy under the direction of the military. That is not bad for the US and Israel but it is bad for the Egyptians.

I agree with you here.

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